The Australian football pools season gets underway in April, and Australian-based pools coupons are published in Britain from mid-late May onward. Australian pools are a very different proposition to British pools. Team-form based systems still work, but with a few tweaks. Analysis of the historical data uncovers some interesting patterns which can be useful in optimizing the odds for football pools players.
So What's Different?
The game Aussie football is not soccer as we know it. It is much more physical and injury rates are much higher than in soccer. Playing standards. The best teams play well below the standard of even an English third division team. Teams die and are re-born regularly and change their names regularly. There are usually several instances of point’s deductions for breaking of rules each season.
The difference in performance between top and bottom sides in a division can be massive, and when this is the case then a lower performing team might not even show for a match, resulting in a forfeit. With a forfeited match, a score of even 10-0 can be awarded against the loser, which has a big impact on goal difference. Players change teams with great regularity, and the move of just one good player can make a massive difference to team's performance.
It really is a frontiersman's game!
Whilst most serious punters accept that 'playing to form' is much more apparent in Australian football because of the much wider range of standards within a given league, there are other interesting aspects too. For example, the statistics show that when a team loses at home, then the probability of winning its next match, if it is an 'Away', is relatively high.
Typically, almost half of teams avoid losing in away games following a home defeat. This means that when completing an Aussie pools coupon, the punter needs a much stronger bias towards Away wins than would be the case in the English football pools.
More detailed analysis of the home-lose-win sequences can be rewarding, and uncovering 'Away' bankers for a coupon is possible - something which is unthinkable on the English coupon (think about some of the 'certain away wins' in the English Premiership in the most recent season, which just didn't turn out to be as expected). Again, this is down to the performance range within a given league - very wide in Australian football and relatively much narrower in British soccer. Indeed, predicting Away wins is much more lucrative for Aussie pools.
Now in the UK football pools, some people may have a view about biasing draw selections towards (or away from) Scottish leagues, for example. In Australian pools, there are clear differences in performance statistics across the various leagues (there may be up to twelve or thirteen leagues appearing on an Australian football pools coupon); this affects the strategy for draw selection on the Treble Chance football pools.
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