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Prof. Femi Otubanjo

A professor of political science, Femi Otubanjo, in this interview with MUDIAGA AFFE, speaks on the Independence Day bomb attacks in Abuja and their consequences for the nation. Excerpts:

Since the October 1 bomb blasts in Abuja, ex-military President Ibrahim Babangida; former vice-president Atiku Abubakar and others have been at loggerheads with President Goodluck Jonathan. What can you make out of this?

The controversy over the bomb blasts has followed the same line of polarisation on zoning in the Peoples Democratic Party. So, one was not surprised that everybody was trying to make political capital out of the unfortunate incident. It is tragic that a bomb went off. It is more tragic that people are trying to play politics with it. I wonder whether these combatants ever spared a thought for the people that died and those that were injured in their response to the unfortunate situation. I imagine that their initial reactions will give way to a more rational appraisal of this dangerous trend. We do not have this tradition, as a country, of placing bombs indiscriminately and killing one another. We should be more concerned about the danger of sustained terrorism, which means that we should collectively be focused on getting those who are responsible. Well, I guess we can attribute the unusual response to the unusual nature of the situation. We have had 49 celebrations of independence without any unusual incident. The explosion on the 50th came from the blues and it was not something we anticipated or had experience in managing.

But the harsh criticisms that came from a former minister of finance, Alhaji Adamu Ciroma, tilted towards regional lines and it is a source of worry. What are your comments on that?

We must avoid every attempt to polarise this country along regional or religious lines. We must also admit that in the political arena, you will find all shades of opinion. Interestingly, Ciroma, in spite of his vast experience and advanced age, has decided to pitch himself, for the purpose of the zoning and rotation of power on the fanatical end of the spectrum and has made statements which have confounded some of us who expect him to be a little bit more circumspect. I am not sure that what he wants to bequeath to this country is not a regional or religious conflagration. Supporters of zoning abound in the north and the south, while those who are against it are also on both sides of the divide. We should not instigate a crisis which will only bring more suffering to the ordinary man. The North held power for over 30 years, in this country yet remains a zone of poverty. The majority of people in the South are also living in poverty. President Olusegun Obasanjo was in power for eight years but is the South-West an Eldorado? We are not living in paradise. Our roads are still bad and other infrastructural facilities are still comatose. These individuals who are jostling for power should not recruit ordinary individuals who are going about their legitimate businesses into their morbid and desperate ambitions. We desire leaders that are responsible and know that what they say can have dire consequences.

What could be the effect of those bomb attacks within and outside the country?

This is a dangerous trend. We are not a suicidal people. We have political violence, here and there, largely the use of thugs, but we are a humane people who value human life. We should not throw ourselves into a dangerous situation just because we want to make a point. We must pray that this bomb blast is not the beginning of a new pattern of political violence. Those outside our shores must be concerned that we may be entering into a new culture of violence. That is not something they expect from us. They know the usual Nigerian vices and terrorism is not one of them. We have now seen a bomb explosion which does not make sense. If it makes any sense, at all, it might just be that it is the beginning of a new genre of political violence. It would, obviously, send wrong signals to the international community that Nigeria, with all its problems, has added a reign of terrorism to its catalogue of vices; that, of course, will discourage them from coming. The probability of capital flight will increase while foreign capital investment may slow down.

We have had different people aspiring to become the President of this nation. Among these aspirants, do you see good choice?

When you listen to all the people who are aspiring to lead the country, they seem to understand that there is a leadership problem. They seem to think that we have a developmental crisis and that we have not got to where we ought to be in 50 years, given the massive resources available to us. So, to that extent, we can simply say any of them can fit into the mould of the kind of leader that we need. Of course, we know that politicians often make sweet statements and promises which they do not honour when they get to power. However, to begin to draw a picture on the kind of leaders that we need in Nigeria will be like looking for a pie in the sky. It is not something you can wish for, it is something that somebody will need to go out there and get. If you say we need a leader that is visionary, experienced, versatile, transparent in governance, strong, incorruptible, yes that is the profile of the leader we need, but these qualities do not always come together in those who go for political offices. What we can wish for is that whosoever becomes our leader is someone that we have examined thoroughly as the electorate. We are going to choose our leader among aspirants that will come out to canvass for our votes. Among those who are there today, we are hoping that any of them could probably be a great leader but it will depend on us to set and enforce the right agenda for them. We must also bear in mind that leadership failure is a function of many other failures. We have a country that has weak institutions. We have not been able to build our governance around institutions but around people with their whims and caprices. Leadership will always be a problem if the institutions are not working. The Police are not working as a corrective agency. The judiciary is only partially working as a corrective agency. The so-called anti-graft agencies are not working to their maximum. There are people who are walking freely in this country, who have been accused of stealing billions of naira. They are in our National Assembly and other arms of government. Some of them are even aspiring to occupy leadership positions.

How can this be corrected?

That is why we are talking about a leader that can rescue us. When you get into that vicious circle, you begin to think of the idea of a messiah. You begin to look for a messianic leader. If we do not break that vicious circle, our people will continue to look for this messiah. We need someone who has the strength of character, someone who can tell the Police, the Army, the State Security Service, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to do their work. That was what late Gen. Murtala Muhammed did within the short period he was in office. He drove away corrupt people from the civil service, the Police and the Army. The environment is very fertile for poor leadership. It is that of illiteracy, poverty and political complacency. It is fertile for leaders that just do whatever they want to do. But are we to wait until the majority are literate, economically empowered and politically alert? Getting it right is not simple. However, the fact that we can get a Governor Babatunde Fashola in Lagos State means that all hope is not lost. When we get over this noise of zoning or no zoning, we may begin to see the emergence of a new kind of leadership. President Jonathan is promising us transformation. It is my prayer that he should be able to do it because he has the requisite profile to do it. President Jonathan is the first doctoral degree holder to become the President of Nigeria and the Vice-President has a Master’s degree. You cannot get a better leadership team than that. So, we are looking up to them. We need a new generation of Nigerians that will help us to build the institutional framework that will take the country to where it should be. Our country is, right now, in the grip of a culture of impunity. This is the explanation for kidnapping in the South-East; open warfare, with guns, on the streets of Ibadan in Oyo State and nine lawmakers sacking 15 in Ogun State. The people are doing what they are doing because they know they have a high probability of getting away with it. Impunity has so pervaded this country that anybody can become a godfather in his neigbourhood.

Some northern elders have begun moves to pick a common candidate from among Babangida, Atiku Abubakar, Kwara State Governor Bukola Saraki and the former National Security Adviser, Gen. Aliyu Gusau (retd.). How do you assess this?

I do not see that move as a threat to the emergence of President Jonathan. If you understand the dynamics of primaries in Nigeria, you will discover that Jonathan has an advantage. Primaries are won by governors and their delegates. From all we can see so far, Jonathan has an advantage in that respect and he is not a candidate of the south or the north. There is danger in creating the perception that the North is fighting against the South. That is the danger a consensus candidate will create. It is a disservice to this country for any group of people to sit down and talk about a consensus candidate.