The 2011 governorship election is just one year away, if a provision that elections should be conducted, six months before swearing-in as canvassed in the electoral bill is finally passed. However, the race for governorship election is becoming more interesting in Lagos State, given the emerging forces and issues in the politics of the state. Gboyega Akinsanmi profiles some of the aspirants
The political climate in Lagos State is already charged like other states of the federation. One major reason is responsible for the charged political climate in Africa’s most populous metropolis. This simply zeroes in on who rules Lagos Mega-City from May 29, 2011, a political entity which is not just Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre, but has a teeming population of about 18 million.
Given the multifaceted challenges of the metropolis, public debates have started at different levels on who clutches the political leverage of the state after the 2011 general elections. The debates have polarised interests and groups in the state. For the elite, the incumbent Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) deserves another four-year term to enable him consolidates his programmes of socio-economic transformation and infrastructural renewal, which the administration of former governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu commenced.
For the political interests even in the ranks of Action Congress (AC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) among others, the move to clinch Fashola’s job has already commenced even when it is apparent that the incumbent has made history in transforming Lagos metropolis in the last two and half years that he has been in the office.
And lastly, the masses, largely low-income earners, ally with the political interests due to Fashola’s harsher tax regime and massive demolition. Being the largest electorate in the state, this particular class is worst hit by the reform programmes of the Fashola administration.
However, the political game in the state is also open for players in other political parties, such as the Action Congress (AC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Democratic People’s Alliance (DPA), All Nigerian People’s Party (ANPP), Labour Party (LP) and Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA). But beyond the strength of the political parties, other factors like proven leadership qualities, past records in public offices and political programmes among others will determine who will rule the metropolis next in 2011.
Babatunde Raji Fashola
Often called BRF in the elite circle, Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) is the incumbent governor of the state. He won the governorship primaries of the Action Congress in 2007 amid controversies, which culminated in the defection of major actors to other political parties. His political godfather single-handedly secured victory for him in the primaries, despite his skeletal political credentials, before he joined the Tinubu administration in 2003 as the Chief of Staff.
Fashola won the 2007 governorship election, despite all the desperate moves of the ruling party to wrestle the political power of the state from the AC, which emerged on the crumbling rubbles of the Alliance for Democracy (AD).
Since his assumption of office, the incumbent governor has been paddling the canoe of the state amid socio-economic challenges and life-transforming outcomes of his 11-point agenda, which have elicited sound public rating.
Even though his reform programmes have pitched him against the masses in the state, Fashola has made history, taking cognisance of massive infrastructural development, construction of network roads, building ultra-modern health care centres, provision of modern health care facilities, free education and accessible health services. His programmes have brought crime rate down by 70 percent, beautified critical areas in the state, turned around transportation sector and provided relatively enabling environment for investors.
Most of his projects are on-going in different parts. The need to consolidate his performance must have compelled some enlightened interests in the state to ask him questions in public functions whether he will seek second term.
Fashola has indicated interest in second term, but his party will determine if he will run the 2011 governorship race on the platform of the Action Congress. His re-election may have pitched him against his political father, who was said to hold the view that Fashola’s re-election will affect his political plan for the state. But there have been several denials of frosty relationship between the duo.
Jimi Agbaje
Popularly known as Jay Kay, Mr. Jimi Agbaje’s political career and fame rose to prominence in 2007, when he contested the gubernatorial elections in Lagos State. He started the race on the platform of the Action Congress. But when Fashola clinched the AC governorship ticket, Agbaje defected to Democratic Peoples Party (DPA) and brought innovations into politicking in the state, thus using text messaging, YouTube and e-mail to campaign.
Agbaje took off from ‘Idile’, a group of promising minds bubbling with innovative programmes. But he served as a treasurer of Afenifere, the umbrella Yoruba socio-political group. His activities earned him a cabinet position in the Tinubu Administration after the 2003 general elections, but declined the offer, apparently strategising how to occupy the Lagos seat of political power in 2007.
His plan was foiled because Agbaje parted with the political forces through which he could easily realise his gubernatorial ambition in the state.
His dream was to become the governor on the platform of AC.
The governorship primaries did not favour him, a reason he defected to the DPA in 2006. But Agbaje could not win the 2007 gubernatorial race while alleging that the process was not credible, free and fair enough. Yet, Agbaje still remains a major player in the 2011 political game given his popular acceptance, proven leadership qualities and political programmes for the state. He has not rested his gubernatorial oars, though remained silent in the recent time.
But his appearance in the last AC congress has fuelled speculations that Agbaje is still a relevant force not just in the DPA, but also in the ranks of the AC leadership.
There are insinuations that Agbaje may replace Fashola in 2011. But THISDAY learnt that Agbaje, being a principled man has remained neutral, not wanting to come between Tinubu and Fashola.
Musiliu Obanikoro
Senator Musiliu Obanikoro remains a key player in the political game of Lagos. Currently Nigerian High Commissioner to Ghana, Obanikoro keenly contested the 2007 governorship race with the incumbent governor on the platform of the ruling PDP. Nevertheless, the envoy is still eyeing the governor’s seat of Lagos State, despite intra-party challenges facing PDP in the state.
He has a two-decade political experience, starting from when he returned to the shore of Nigeria in 1989 after his tertiary education and short service in the United States. Obanikoro was once appointed Chairman, Caretaker Committee of Surulere Local Government and later elected Chairman, Lagos Island Local Government before a new democratic order began in 1999.
He was appointed State Commissioner for Home Affairs & Culture in 1999 during the administration of former Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu. In 2003, he was elected Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on the platform of Alliance for Democracy (AD). He defected to the ruling PDP in 2006, when he could not clinch the gubernatorial ticket of the AC, a political party which emerged from the dying AD in 2006.
Femi Pedro
Before his appointment as the Deputy Governor of Lagos State in 2003 during the administration of former Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Pedro was Chief Executive Officer/Managing Director of former First Atlantic Bank (now Fin Bank Plc). In 2006, the former deputy governor indicated interest to run the 2007 governorship election on the platform of the Action Congress.
Precisely on December 13, 2006, Pedro dumped the AC to realise his dream to clutch the political leverage of Lagos State under the Labour Party. His defection was premised on what he described as gross manipulation of the AC governorship primaries. He resigned his position as deputy governor after citing electoral malpractices in the gubernatorial elections in which he participated and lost.
But, Tinubu administration rejected his letter of resignation, and the Lagos State House of Assembly commenced an impeachment process against him. He was finally impeached in 2007 at the tail end of his tenure. Since 2007, Pedro has been playing the role of opposition in the state, indicating his plan to contest the 2011 election to realise his governorship ambition. After the last election, Pedro defected to the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) where he is currently rooting deep to contest the next election.
Compared with other political actors in the state, Pedro is not a popular candidate, and his political party is not strong enough in the state. He has a strong personality and required leadership qualities to lead the state successfully. But the former deputy governor has such stronger personalities as Alhaji Demola Seriki, who is the current Minister of State for Defence, Dr. Adegboyega Dosunmu, who is the favourite candidate of the Chief Bode George political group and Obanikoro who is now Nigerian High Commissioner to Ghana to contend with in the primaries of the ruling party.
Muiz Banire
Unlike the contenders earlier stated, Dr. Muiz Banire has not tested his popularity in any electoral contest, but has held different political offices at the cabinet level. Currently Commissioner for Environment in the state, Banire has an ambition to contest the 2011 governorship race. He has been said to be the favoured candidate of the Tinubu political group. Banire has not declared his ambition publicly, though has been making underground moves to realise his dream.
Aside that, he has been holding public offices at the level of cabinet in the state since 1999; Banire has sound academic background, but low political profile. With a doctoral degree in Law and vast experience in Governance and Public Administration, Banire stands out among other contenders. The question remains: Can he garner enough support that will definitely earn him governorship ticket of the AC? This is a hurdle many sceptics believe Banire cannot scale.
For his critics, Banire cannot garner the support of the party leaders to clinch the gubernatorial ticket of the AC. Even with his celebrated ties with Tinubu, major actors in the party have said Banire cannot win the primaries. Some said that, the party leadership has an entirely different political plan on which the mantle of leadership falls in the state.
Besides, Banire has some powerful actors to contend with, and the working of the actors may cripple his governorship plan. However, investigation revealed in the recent time that the leadership of his political party are looking beyond the party to pick its gubernatorial candidate.
Adegboyega Dosunmu
Dosunmu, a former Director General/Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) is believed to have been substantially adopted by a good number of the major interest groups in the Lagos PDP.
His belief, according to one of his close aides, is that every programme of government must carry a human face and not destroy the people’s means of livelihood.
Dosunmu had recently declared his intention to run the 2011 gubernatorial race in the state. Dosunmu depends on the support of the Chief Bode George camp to actualise his gubernatorial ambition. It appears that Dosunmu is politically strong enough to wrestle the PDP governorship ticket from either Obanikoro or Pedro.
Tokunbo Afikuyomi
Unlike Mrs. Remi Adikwu-Bakare who had shelved her ambition to rule the Lagos for now, Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi has lived a low-political life since 2007. In 2007, Afikuyomi got the ANPP governorship ticket in the state, though returned to the AC shortly before the April 14, 2007 Election and was later appointed Commissioner for Tourism.
The race for the 2011 governorship election is becoming more interesting by the day as more contenders are working underground, testing their popularity and political weight to determine their chances of winning the race.
But like 2007, there will be surprises, as some actors will fall out of the scheme of party decision makers and others form alliance with a view to frustrating the power of political dragons.
While the incumbent has an edge, his political rivals, especially in the ranks of his political affiliation, may not sheathe swords in thwarting his re-election bid.
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