elections (6)
Barely two weeks after the country received and outlook downgrade by Fitch Ratings, Standard and Poor’s, another international rating agency has given the country a pass mark with a ‘B+/B’ Ratings affirmed on resilient economy. It also gave the country a stable outlook, despite what it called ‘high political risk’.
In the report published yesterday, S&P stated, “We consider that the ratings on Nigeria are constrained by high political risk, but supported by a strong balance sheet. We are affirming the ‘B+/B’ global scale ratings and the ‘ngA+/ngA-1’ Nigeria national scale ratings.” The report says Nigeria’s outlook is stable, “reflecting our expectation that Nigeria will maintain its strong external and fiscal balance sheet, and that budgetary performance will gradually improve over the next few years.”
Elections accentuate risk..
The report added that political risk in Nigeria may be exacerbated by the forthcoming presidential elections.
“The affirmation reflects our view that Nigeria’s economic performance and external liquidity has been better than we previously expected, although its fiscal performance has been weaker and political risk could heighten in the run-up to the 2011 presidential elections,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Christian Esters.
It noted that Nigeria remains a low-income country, with GDP per capita estimated at $1.32 billion in 2010. Nevertheless, Nigeria has a strong fiscal debt position, despite the sharp deterioration in budgetary performance since 2009. “We estimate that Nigeria’s general government debt will increase to above 16 per cent of GDP by year-end 2010, which is still a comparatively low level.”
Comfortable external liquidity
The report said Nigeria also benefits from comfortable external liquidity, with continuous current account surpluses. “For 2010, we expect a surplus of approximately 14 per cent of GDP, and gross external financing needs at a low 54 per cent of current account receipts and usable reserves.”
The ratings firm said the stable outlook reflects expectation that Nigeria will maintain its strong external and fiscal balance sheet, and that budgetary performance will gradually improve over the next few years. “We also expect that tensions surrounding the forthcoming April 2011 presidential elections could increase political uncertainty and destabilise the country for some time after the elections,” said Mr Esters.
Finance minister, Olusegun Aganga had rejected the Fitch ratings report on the ground that it did not reflect the effort by government to address the concerns raised. Fitch cited the depletion of the Excess Crude Account (ECA), the decline in foreign exchange reserves and their own concern that the reform agenda of the current administration which they found to be very positive may not be implemented before the elections; the following as the major reasons for the revision of the outlook.
Mr Aganga said, “We do consider the decision to adjust the outlook downwards unduly punitive and disagree with it given the numerous positive features of the country’s economy and ongoing reforms.” He said government has taken a number of measures which include the proposed establishment of a Nigerian Sovereign Wealth Fund and urgent steps which are being taken to address the infrastructure deficit particularly in the power sector as outlined in the Power Roadmap that was unveiled by the President in August.
After a two-day retreat in Calabar, Cross River State, the commission said it shall explore legal ways to get the additional time it required. A statement by Paul Kaigama, the Commission’s secretary said, “Having examined the Commission’s detailed Action Plan for the voter registration and elections, the Retreat noted that the timeline for the implementation of this Plan is very tight.”
A plea for more time
He said, “Consequently, the commission shall endeavour to engage all the relevant stakeholders with a view to exploring all legal avenues for extension of time to enable the commission to deliver on the aspirations of Nigerians for a credible voters’ register and free, fair and credible elections.” Attahiru Jega, the commission’s chairman has repeatedly harped on the ardous task of conducting a vital voters’ registration exercise and general elections within six months of his taking office.
The task was made harder by the late release of approved funds by the federal government. President Goodluck Jonathan also took many weeks to assent to the new Electoral Act which the commission needs to conduct the election.
The commission appealed to all political parties to adhere to the Electoral Act and conduct their congresses and primaries within the law.
Barely six weeks to the commencement of the voters’ registration, as stipulated in the timetable released, the commission is yet to officially name the IT firms that are to provide the 120,000 units of Direct Data Capture Machines, needed for the exercise.
Mr. Jega’s aide, Kayode Idowu, told NEXT yesterday that the companies will be announced by the chairman “when the time is ripe,” further fuelling concerns about the ability of the body to conduct successful polls in the face of obvious time constraint.
At several fora, Mr. Jega himself has said the commission would prefer an extension of the election timetable, which is time-bound by the electoral law. The more time available to the commission, the better its chances of doing a good job, he had argued.
However, the commission said if it succeeds in getting more time, although it will affect key dates in the elections timetable, the inauguration date of May 29, 2011, will remain “sacrosanct”, the commission said.
In the other decisions arrived at the retreat, the commission urged the National Assembly to enact a law for the establishment of an Electoral Offences Tribunal, in the hope that “there is the need to severely punish electoral offenders to serve as deterrent to others.” The Commission also said it has developed a software which will be field-tested before the commencement of the voters’ registration, and vowed to ensure strict compliance to legal provisions governing the conduct of congresses, conventions and primaries by political parties.
Five months ago, a friend of mine, who edits a national daily, sent me a text message agreeing substantially with my column, ‘The Punch and the rest of us’, except the generalised conclusion that “all (journalists) have sinned and fallen short of the glory of the profession”. There are still some journalists, he submits, who toe the narrow path of integrity. Of course I knew where he was coming from, but I also knew the context in which I had made that statement.
I revisit that statement in light of the stories spewing out of the political beat, specifically on the race for the 2011 presidential elections and how it affects the integrity of news.
As part of the effort to sell his candidature for the presidency, former military president, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) invited as many as 40 journalists to his Minna home on August 14 for an interview. I have heard questions asked about why he should invite journalists to his home instead of a public place if he didn’t have an ulterior motive, and why he should offer monetary gifts to the journalists in the name of paying for their transportation.
One news medium, which has championed this opposition in the open, is the online agency, Sahara Reporters. According to SR each of the journalists received N10 million for heeding Babangida’s call on his presidential ambition. That is N400 million just for one night’s interview from an aspirant yet to win his party’s nomination if it were true. But it was not. When some of the journalists complained about the fictional sum, SR changed the story on August 19, saying it was just “a paltry N250, 000 each”. Rather than admit its initial error SR simply said, “our accountants have told us that going by the number of 40 journalists in attendance, we are still around the same ballpark of N10 million”. So much for credible reporting!
Three days later, SR followed up with ‘IBB and his Rogue Journalists’, accusing the journalists of roguery and professional misconduct; roguery, because they collected money from two sources—their employers who presumably authorised and funded the trip and their news source, IBB; misconduct because it is unethical for them to demand/receive gratification from news sources for their services.
And on August 23 in ‘IBB Nocturnal Press Parley: Punch fires Editorial board Chairman’, SR stayed on top of the story by reporting that Adebolu Arowolo, editorial board chairman of the Punch, had lost his job for going on that trip without his management’s approval..
